We hear (or read) these days contradictory comments on the state of the U.S. economy. Is it a recession or not? Recall the usual definition of a recession:
A period of at least 2 quarters in a row with negative growth in real GDP.
Even if she is anemic, growth is slightly positive so far. Look at the chart above, taken from the journal National Economic Trends, Fed of St. Louis in June 2008. It is possible that growth is negative in the second quarter (ending June 30th) and the next quarter, but no numbers yet. So they may be in recession, but we do know that in the fall.
Note also that due to the natural growth of the labor force and productivity growth, as soon as economic growth falls below a certain level (in Canada, about 2.5% on average), the unemployment rate increases, even if growth remains positive. Unemployment on the rise is not necessarily indicative of a recession.
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